You then run into the issue of manufacturers not having enough time to roadmap/push prequels out the door. 2035 seems like a long time away, but realistically it’s 12 years. That’s just about enough time for a large manufacturer to push out a solid platform and ensure it’s good enough. Any less time and most legacy automakers probably wouldn’t make it.
Look at the i3 and i8 from BMW. The i3 first released in 2013. In those 10 years they barely managed to introduce a second generation of electric vehicles. Now I’ll admit they weren’t focussed on it, but development takes time.
I’m not sure it’s even just that. If everyone tomorrow moved from a combustion engine to an EV we’d have a real problem. Because I think even if you turned every fuel station into a fast charging station with 2-3x the capacity they had for dispensing fuel (completely ignoring the cutover period where you WILL need to supply fuel too), you’d still end up with queues to charge because it takes sufficiently longer enough to pose a problem compared to just adding fuel. I’m not sure if there’s been a solution suggested, aside from charging stations at home, work, supermarkets etc, which we have now but would need to be in every parking bay to meet the demand of every driver now in an EV. I’m then thinking of all the power needed to charge say 100 cars at the same time on fast charge. There’s probably a lot of knock-on infrastructure change because of this.
On the other hand, people don’t solve problems until they’re actually a problem staring them in the face. Just look at climate change, it’s now patently obvious things are changing fast and still the changes come at a glacial pace. I have little doubt the same will happen with EV charging.
This is the reason I expect this 2035 date to be pushed back in reality. I’m just not seeing enough earth moving now to make it a likelihood. I’ll be happy to be proven wrong though in this case, I assure you.
You then run into the issue of manufacturers not having enough time to roadmap/push prequels out the door. 2035 seems like a long time away, but realistically it’s 12 years. That’s just about enough time for a large manufacturer to push out a solid platform and ensure it’s good enough. Any less time and most legacy automakers probably wouldn’t make it.
Look at the i3 and i8 from BMW. The i3 first released in 2013. In those 10 years they barely managed to introduce a second generation of electric vehicles. Now I’ll admit they weren’t focussed on it, but development takes time.
I’m not sure it’s even just that. If everyone tomorrow moved from a combustion engine to an EV we’d have a real problem. Because I think even if you turned every fuel station into a fast charging station with 2-3x the capacity they had for dispensing fuel (completely ignoring the cutover period where you WILL need to supply fuel too), you’d still end up with queues to charge because it takes sufficiently longer enough to pose a problem compared to just adding fuel. I’m not sure if there’s been a solution suggested, aside from charging stations at home, work, supermarkets etc, which we have now but would need to be in every parking bay to meet the demand of every driver now in an EV. I’m then thinking of all the power needed to charge say 100 cars at the same time on fast charge. There’s probably a lot of knock-on infrastructure change because of this.
On the other hand, people don’t solve problems until they’re actually a problem staring them in the face. Just look at climate change, it’s now patently obvious things are changing fast and still the changes come at a glacial pace. I have little doubt the same will happen with EV charging.
This is the reason I expect this 2035 date to be pushed back in reality. I’m just not seeing enough earth moving now to make it a likelihood. I’ll be happy to be proven wrong though in this case, I assure you.