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Joined 1 year ago
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Cake day: July 6th, 2023

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  • Note that I’m the original commenter rather than the one you’re replying to. I don’t want to talk about fertility but I do have a few questions for you.

    As an elder Millennial, I have zero interest in someone half my age. Or younger.

    I think you and I are about the same age. What do you mean by “interest” here?

    Emotional intelligence and availability, shared experiences, and common ground are also factors in potential mates. Add societal factors like education, financial stability…

    Those sound like your criteria for long-term compatibility rather than your criteria for sexual attraction. I think they are different things. I have met people who would have been great long-term relationship partners if not for the fact that I was not attracted to them. I have also met people I was very attracted to who turned out to be terrible partners.

    Some people (usually women) say that someone who wasn’t initially attractive to them became attractive once they learned what a good person he was. I was taught that judging people based on their appearance was shallow and wrong, so I tried very hard to make relationships with good people I wasn’t attracted to work. They never did. They were doomed from the start and there would have been less pain for everyone if I had been honest with myself immediately rather than pretending that my initial lack of attraction didn’t matter or that it could change with time.


  • The actual transcript:

    But [Dick Cheney’s] daughter is a very dumb individual, very dumb. She’s a radical war hawk. Let’s put her with a rifle standing there with nine barrels shooting at her. OK, let’s see how she feels about it. You know, when the guns are trained on her face, you know, they’re all war hawks when they’re sitting in Washington in a nice building saying, oh, gee. Well, let’s send, let’s send 10,000 troops right into the mouth of the enemy, but she’s a stupid person. And I used to have, I have meetings with a lot of people, and she always wanted to go to war with people.

    I’m no fan of Trump but this is unambiguously not a threat. The clear meaning is that she would would change her mind if she was one of the soldiers who would be fighting a war that she supports, not that Trump would threaten her with a gun until she changed her mind.


  • Not all older people are sexually attracted to other older people. A 70-year-old friend of mine confessed that he’s sad and frustrated because any woman he is attracted to is way too young for him. (He’s not a creep who would actually bother younger women.)

    I worry about this myself. I’m still young enough that I think women my own age are attractive, but to be honest I can’t imagine being attracted to a retirement-aged woman unless she is one of those celebrities who have a hidden painting that ages instead of them.





  • We don’t have sufficient information to reliably predict IQ, but we do know hundreds of genetic loci associated with intelligence. The overall contribution of these loci is significant.

    The polygenic scores predicted 4–7% of intelligence variance in independent samples; another study predicted 10.6% [50]. Thus, a blood sample at birth in these samples predicts intelligence with about the same effect size as parental socioeconomic status, i.e. they do not predict well; neither is of practical use for predicting the intelligence of an individual.

    Source. (A review of the subject.)

    It’s true that the polygenic scores cannot reliably predict that one person will have a higher IQ than another, but that doesn’t mean that polygenic screening is useless as a tool for increasing the expected intelligence of one’s offspring. People who effectively screen their embryos will, on average, have slightly but significantly smarter children than people who don’t. In this way, screening is not qualitatively different from many other parental interventions.

    I would use this sort of screening if there was an opportunity to do so. (I don’t think it currently justifies resorting to IVF if that is otherwise not necessary, although it would if the effect was larger.)


  • It’s a bold move but I don’t see it changing the outcome of the ongoing war. If Ukraine could build long-range ballistic missiles in the near future, I think they could regain the advantage even without any nuclear warheads. Nuclear warheads would not be useful without those ballistic missiles.

    (What would happen if Ukraine did have nuclear-armed ballistic missiles but Russia refused to withdraw from Ukrainian territory? I don’t foresee Ukraine actually nuking Russia, even in those circumstances.)


  • No, I don’t think the popular theory that organizations like Hamas exist because people want revenge is correct. The critical component seems to be a power vacuum; in its absence humans will tolerate anything. If Israel establishes order in Gaza by some means (and by that I don’t just mean armed patrols through hostile territory) then there can be occasional terrorist attacks but no organized resistance.

    The problem that I see is actually that there’s little precedent for establishing order in circumstances like this while acting with the humanitarian constraints that Israel does have. The USA failed in Afghanistan and Iraq. Russia succeeded in Chechnya but Israel cannot (and should not) even come close to the level of brutality Russia employed.






  • He was particularly hostile to peace with Israel (and Israel was particularly hostile to peace with him). Furthermore (according to my understanding) Hamas doesn’t have much formal structure; it isn’t like the USA where the government is ready to accept the vice president as the leader if the president dies. I assume that Sinwar prepared a successor, but there’s still probably no one who knows all the same things and has the loyalty of all the same people.