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Cake day: June 18th, 2023

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  • Thanks for the correction. I remembered seeing that number but didn’t analyze it in any depth. A more detailed analysis of the market, by Freddie Mac, concluded that there were four main drivers for the recent surge in prices, and investors weren’t on the list.

    1. record low mortgage rates in 2020 and 2021, and the race to beat future rate increases;
    2. limited supply from underbuilding and below average distressed sales;
    3. an increase in first-time homebuyers due to favorable age demographics; and
    4. increased migration from high-cost cities to areas that already had a housing shortage.

    Institutional investors apparently even reduced their purchases in 23 - some of them were even net sellers - because of prices and interest rates. That doesn’t mean they aren’t still villians in this scenario. I don’t think big investors should own single family homes at all. But still they aren’t as big a force as my previous comment indicated.